Alta volatilidad de los mercados marcará el escenario comercial en 2019

Una guerra comercial no declarada con altibajos en la relación China-Estados Unidos, un crecimiento inferior al de años anteriores tanto para los países desarrollados como los emergentes y una alta volatilidad de los mercados que se “moverán como montañas rusas” son algunas de las características que marcarán el comportamiento económico global en 2019.

Es la conclusión de los expertos que participaron en el seminario “Proyecciones 2019: las claves que marcarán los mercados y las inversiones” organizado por la Asociación de Periodistas de Economía y Finanzas (AIPEF) y  SURA Asset Management Chile, que contó como expositores con el consultor internacional, Osvaldo Rosales; el presidente de la Cámara Chileno-Norteamericana de Comercio (AmCham Chile), Guillermo Carey; el director de estudios y políticas públicas de Cochilco, Jorge Cantallopts; y el gerente regional de estrategias de ahorro e inversión de SURA Asset Management, Cristóbal Doberti.

En la oportunidad Osvaldo Rosales señaló que China tiene hoy más publicaciones científicas, patentes industriales, start up y centros de innovación que cualquier otro país en el mundo y que, al igual que Estados Unidos, busca recuperar su hegemonía histórica.

Coincidiendo con esta apreciación, Guillermo Carey afirmó que el mundo tendrá que buscar nuevas formas de relacionamiento ante esta nueva relación entre los dos gigantes, aun cuando consideró que el proteccionismo norteamericano es más bien de carácter táctico. Asimismo, destacó la solidez de la relación Chile- Estados Unidos, señalando que desde la firma del TLC el comercio bilateral se ha multiplicado por diez y que Chile tiene la estabilidad y los equilibrios para convertirse en un país plataforma hacia el resto del continente.

Cristóbal Doberti, Jorge Cantallopts, Marta Sánchez, Guillermo Carey y Osvaldo Rosales

Por su parte, Jorge Cantallopts situó el precio del cobre por sobre los 3 dólares la libra para el próximo año, recalcando la necesidad de que se activen nuevos proyectos para alcanzar la capacidad que debería tener Chile de producir 6 millones de toneladas anuales de mineral. Según aseguró, aunque China crezca al 5%, es suficiente para mantener alta la demanda del metal rojo en el mundo. Asimismo demandó del Estado un rol más activo que aporte incentivos para la instalación de nuevas explotaciones, tal como lo están haciendo otras economías de la región.

Cristóbal Doberti, en tanto, vaticinó que el mercado podría mantener la volatilidad que ha mostrado en los últimos meses, en la medida que las perspectivas de crecimiento para los próximos años se han moderado y continúan las discusiones en torno a la relación comercial entre China y EE.UU. En cuanto al precio del cobre, el bajo crecimiento en la producción esperada para el año 2019 podría sostener el precio de mineral. Además, en línea con las perspectivas del IPoM, se espera un alza de la tasa TPM en los próximos meses por parte del Banco Central. En términos de las recomendaciones, en base al escenario económico y de mercados descrito a nivel global, sostuvo que podría ser adecuado moderar las posiciones de los activos de riesgo en los portafolios de inversión, no obstante, no se prevé una recesión económica para el próximo año.

Osvaldo Rosales y Guillermo Carey cerraron la reunión haciendo un llamado a la necesidad de una gran alianza público-privada-académica en nuestro país, única posibilidad de sortear con éxito el futuro disruptivo y de cambios acelerados que vive el mundo.

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