Desayuno para periodistas: Panorama de Inversiones 2018

Además de selectivo, hay que ser táctico para la búsqueda de valor en el corto plazo”

Variables que van más allá de las tradicionales inciden cada vez más en el comportamiento del mercado financiero, los hitos fundamentales siguen siendo importantes, pero cobra mucha fuerza el escenario geopolítico mundial.

 Santiago, 21 de diciembre de 2017.-
Un completo análisis de los factores que incidirán en el comportamiento de los mercados y las mejores alternativas de inversión para el primer semestre del año 2018, fue el tema que convocó a  los expertos Axel Christensen, director de Estrategias de Inversión para Latinoamérica e Iberia de BlackRock, y Renzo Vercelli, vicepresidente de Negocios Voluntarios de SURA Asset Management Chile, en el marco de la charla para periodistas “El impacto de la coyuntura en el comportamiento de los mercados: ¿Cómo se viene el 2018 en materia de inversiones?”, instancia organizada por la Asociación de Periodistas de Economías y Finanzas, (AIPEF) y SURA Asset Management Chile.

Las inversiones en 2018 deberán enfrentar múltiples consideraciones, más allá de las tradicionales, como elevadas valoraciones que exceden los valores promedio del mercado accionario; nuevos indicadores de riesgo financiero, que provienen del factor político, y la búsqueda de retornos más altos por sobre la liquidez, coincidieron los panelistas.

Axel Christensen indicó que la diversificación de los activos es clave para tener un buen desempeño. “Se busca tener un portafolio de inversiones que considere la diversificación entre distintas clases de activos, tomando en cuenta oportunidades de retorno y riesgo”.

Por su parte, Renzo Vercelli, destacó el empoderamiento de los inversionistas retail, fenómeno que explicó debido a la falta institucional de recomendaciones de inversión, “esto ha sido un terreno fértil para que aparezcan los denominados “gurús” del mercado que aconsejan cómo y dónde invertir, produciendo una alta volatilidad en el mercado, muchas veces generando una burbuja financiera, con un fuerte desajuste entre la oferta y la demanda”.

Ambos expertos coincidieron que el concepto de diversificación representa un desafío para encontrar oportunidades de inversión atractivas. Vercelli profundizó que “ya no basta con ser selectivo, hay que ser táctico para la búsqueda de valor en el corto plazo. Hoy en día existe una enorme frustración a la pérdida, por lo que estamos enfocados en el retorno absoluto del cliente, muchas veces sacrificando liquidez por un mayor retorno”.

Enrique Contreras, director AIPEF;  Renzo Vercelli, vicepresidente de Negocios Voluntarios de SURA Asset Management Chile;  Hugo Traslaviña, director AIPEF; Axel Christensen, director de Estrategias de Inversión para Latinoamérica e Iberia de BlackRock y Nicolás Paut, presidente AIPEF.

Enrique Contreras, director AIPEF; Renzo Vercelli, vicepresidente de Negocios Voluntarios de SURA Asset Management Chile; Hugo Traslaviña, director AIPEF; Axel Christensen, director de Estrategias de Inversión para Latinoamérica e Iberia de BlackRock y Nicolás Paut, presidente AIPEF.

FACTORES POLÍTICOS

El ciclo político de América Latina en 2018 preocupa por ser un año electoral en varios países de la región, lo que puede impactar en las decisiones estratégicas. “El año próximo habrá elecciones presidenciales en grandes economías de la región, como Brasil, México y Colombia, pero también en Costa Rica, Paraguay y Venezuela, a las que hay que sumar las recientes elecciones en Chile. Los extranjeros están con una mirada expectante hacia nuestro país, viendo si el camino para conseguir una mayor holgura fiscal se hará apostando al crecimiento o no”, señaló Christensen.

En un panorama regional, América Latina va a concitar mucho interés debido a la gran cantidad de cambios que se vienen durante este primer semestre del 2018, en donde se identifican muchas oportunidades así como también algunos riesgos, por lo que el llamado es a ser selectivos. En el resto del mundo se observa un panorama macroeconómico favorable, en donde los países del G7 se encuentran estables, con una inflación muy controlada. Destacó que la rebaja de impuestos anunciada por el gobierno de Donald Trump en EE.UU. podría empujar un mayor crecimiento.

HACIA DÓNDE VAN LAS INVERSIONES

Consultado por las inversiones más atractivas, el vicepresidente de Negocios Voluntarios de SURA Asset Management Chile, Renzo Vercelli, indicó que existe un gran apetito por los activos alternativos (fondos inmobiliarios e infraestructura) debido principalmente a la baja del mercado accionario. Sin embargo, vaticinó un 2018 positivo para la Bolsa pero no tan atractivo como lo fue el 2017, debido al alto nivel de las valoraciones, augurando entre un 7% y 10% de rentabilidad. “En todo caso nadie tiene la última palabra en esta materia, porque siempre hay muchas variables en juego en el desempeño del mercado local”.

Luego de muchos años de muy buenos resultados en renta fija, hoy el desafío es encontrar nuevas oportunidades de inversión, indicó Vercelli.

Por último, respecto a la dinámica global de las materias primas, el ejecutivo de BlackRock, Axel Christensen, se mostró optimista respecto del cobre puntualmente, puesto que pese a que las tecnologías pueden avanzar mucho, la demanda de este metal podría aumentar por la creciente demanda de carga de los vehículos eléctricos, autos que cada vez son más masivos debido a la gran contaminación que viven países como China e India.

 

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